General information

An analysis of the Euro-Codex data for Europe can be found here: https://www.dkrz.de/projekte-und-partner/HLRE-Projekte/focus/regionale-klimaprojektionen-fuer-europa

While, an analysis of the Euro-Cordex data for Germany has previously been published in:

Dalelane, C., Früh, B., Steger, C., & Walter, A. (2018). A pragmatic approach to build a reduced regional climate projection ensemble for Germany using the EURO-CORDEX 8.5 ensemble. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57(3), 477-491.

And can be found here: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0141.1

Data Overview

There is now also monthly bias-adjusted data available for the variables tasmin and tasmax, which the MINTBio project requires for the calculation of the bioclimatic variables.

Note: The bias-adjusted data has no output for a historical experiment, unlike the original (non bias-adjusted) data. And some GCM/RCM combinations are also not available for the bias-adjusted data.

Data Analysis

Here, I perform a first analysis of the Euro-Cordex bias-adjusted temperature and precipitation data for Bavaria at 0.11 degree (EUR-11, ~12.5 km).

The Euro-Cordex data for Bavaria (cordex_prAdjust_bav.rda, cordex_tasAdjust_bav.rda, cordex_tasminAdjust_bav.rda, cordex_tasmaxAdjust_bav.rda and cordex_bioclimAdjust_30yr_bav.rda), which I use here, can be downloaded from https://github.com/RS-eco/bdc/blob/master/data/.

The code for how the Euro-Cordex data (cordex_prAdjust_bav.rda, cordex_tasAdjust_bav.rda, cordex_tasminAdjust_bav.rda. cordex_tasmaxAdjust_bav.rda and cordex_bioclimAdjust_30yr_bav.rda) was created can be found here: https://github.com/RS-eco/bdc/blob/master/data-raw/euro_cordex.R

Temporal patterns

Temperature

Fig. 1. Mean monthly temperature for 7 selected years and each of the three rcps (ensemble mean of different gcms, rcms and ensemble).

Fig. 2. Mean monthly temperature over time (ensemble mean of different gcms, rcms and ensemble) shown for the three experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for which bias-adjusted data is available.

Fig. 3. Mean annual temperature over time (ensemble mean of different gcms, rcms and ensemble) shown for the three experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for which bias-adjusted data is available.

Fig. 4. Mean monthly temperature for 7 selected years and the different experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for each GCM, RCM and Ensemble combination.

Fig. 5. Mean annual temperature over time. Colour indicates the different experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Each plot represents one GCM, RCM and Ensemble combination.

Minimum temperature

Fig. 6. Mean monthly minimum temperature for 7 selected years and each of the three rcps (ensemble mean of different gcms, rcms and ensembles).

Fig. 7. Mean monthly minimum temperature over time (ensemble mean of different gcms, rcms and ensembles) shown for the three experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for which bias-adjusted data is available.

Fig. 8. Mean annual minimum temperature over time (ensemble mean of different gcms, rcms and ensembles) shown for the three experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for which bias-adjusted data is available.

Fig. 9. Mean monthly minimum temperature for 7 selected years and the different experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for each GCM, RCM and Ensemble combination.

Fig. 10. Mean annual minimum temperature over time. Colour indicates the different experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Each plot represents one GCM, RCM and Ensemble combination.

Maximum temperature

Fig. 11. Mean monthly maximum temperature for 7 selected years and each of the three rcps (ensemble mean of different gcms, rcms and ensembles).

Fig. 12. Mean monthly maximum temperature over time (ensemble mean of different gcms, rcms and ensembles) shown for the three experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for which bias-adjusted data is available.

Fig. 13. Mean annual maximum temperature over time (ensemble mean of different gcms, rcms and ensembles) shown for the three experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for which bias-adjusted data is available.

Fig. 14. Mean monthly maximum temperature for 7 selected years and the different experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for each GCM, RCM and Ensemble combination.

Fig. 15. Mean annual maximum temperature over time. Colour indicates the different experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Each plot represents one GCM, RCM and Ensemble combination.

Precipitation

Fig. 16. Mean monthly precipitation for 7 selected years and each of the three rcps (ensemble mean of different gcms, rcms and ensembles).

Fig. 17. Mean monthly precipitation over time (ensemble mean of different gcms, rcms and ensembles) shown for the three experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for which bias-adjusted data is available.

Fig. 18. Mean annual precipitation over time (ensemble mean of different gcms, rcms and ensembles) shown for the three experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for which bias-adjusted data is available.

Fig. 19. Mean monthly precipitation for 7 selected years and the different experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for each GCM, RCM and Ensemble combination.

Fig. 20. Mean annual precipitation over time. Colour indicates the different experiments (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Each plot represents one GCM, RCM and Ensemble combination.

Spatial patterns

Temperature

Fig. 21. Map of 30-yr average temperature for three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) and the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 22. Seasonal patterns of 30-yr average temperature for three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100).

Fig. 23. Map of 30-yr average temperature for three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) separately for summer (top) and winter (bottom).

Minimum temperature

Fig. 24. Map of 30-yr average minimum temperature for three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) and the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 25. Seasonal patterns of 30-yr average minimum temperature for three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100).

Fig. 26. Map of 30-yr average minimum temperature for three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) separately for summer (top) and winter (bottom).

Maximum temperature

Fig. 27. Map of 30-yr average maximum temperature for three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) and the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 28. Seasonal patterns of 30-yr average maximum temperature for three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100).

Fig. 29. Map of 30-yr average maximum temperature for three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) separately for summer (top) and winter (bottom).

Precipitation

Fig. 30. Map of 30-yr average precipitation for three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) and the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 31. Seasonal patterns of 30-yr average precipitation for three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100).

Fig. 32. Map of 30-yr average precipitation for three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) separately for summer (top) and winter (bottom).

Spatial changes

Temperature

2021-2050

Fig. 33. Map of change and relative change (%) in 30-yr average temperature (2021-2050 - 1971-2000) and the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 34. Seasonal change in 30-yr average temperature (2021-2050 - 1971-2000).

Fig. 35. Map of change in 30-yr average temperature (2021-2050 - 1971-2000) separately for RCP, GCM, RCM and Ensemble combination.

2071 - 2100

Fig. 36. Map of change and relative change (%) in 30-yr average temperature (2071-2100 - 1971-2000) and the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 37. Seasonal change in 30-yr average temperature (2071-2100 - 1971-2000).

Fig. 38. Map of change in 30-yr average temperature (2071-2100 - 1971-2000) separately for RCP, GCM, RCM and Ensemble combination.

Precipitation

2021 - 2050

Fig. 39. Map of change and relative change (%) in 30-yr average precipitation (2021-2050 - 1971-2000) and the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 40. Seasonal change in 30-yr average precipitation (2021-2050 - 1971-2000).

Fig. 41. Map of change in 30-yr average precipitation (2021-2050 - 1971-2000) separately for RCP, GCM, RCM and Ensemble combination.

2071 - 2100

Fig. 42. Map of change and relative change (%) in 30-yr average precipitation (2071-2100 - 1971-2000) and the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 43. Seasonal change in 30-yr average precipitation (2071-2100 - 1971-2000).

Fig. 44. Map of change in 30-yr average precipitation (2071-2100 - 1971-2000) separately for GCM, RCM and Ensemble combination.

Maps of Slope and R2 of modelled (linear) change

Temperature

Fig. 45. Map of Slope (top) and R2 (bottom) of linear model of temperature for each of the three rcps. One linear model was run for each grid cell.

Minimum temperature

Fig. 46. Map of Slope (top) and R2 (bottom) of linear model of minimum temperature for each of the three rcps. One linear model was run for each grid cell.

Maximum temperature

Fig. 47. Map of Slope (top) and R2 (bottom) of linear model of maximum temperature for each of the three rcps. One linear model was run for each grid cell.

Precipitation

Fig. 48. Map of Slope (top) and R2 (bottom) of linear model of precipitation for each of the three rcps. One linear model was run for each grid cell.

Bioclimatic variables

Temporal patterns

Fig. 49. Temporal changes in bioclimatic conditions for the different rcps. The individual violins show the variation among x, y, gcms, rcms and ensemble.

Fig. 50. Temporal changes in bio1 for the different rcps and gcm, rcm and ensemble combinations. The individual violins show the variation in x and y.

Fig. 51. Temporal changes in bio12 for the different rcps and gcm, rcm and ensemble combinations. The individual violins show the variation in x and y.

Spatial patterns

Fig. 52. Map of bio1 for the three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) and the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 53. Map of bio4 for the three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) and the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 54. Map of bio5 for the three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) and the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 55. Map of bio12 for the three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) and the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 56. Map of bio15 for the three selected time periods (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) and the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Spatial change

2021 - 2050

Fig. 57. Change (top) and relative change (bottom) of bio1 until 2021-2050 for the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 58. Change (top) and relative change (bottom) of bio12 until 2021-2050 for the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

2071 - 2100

Fig. 59. Change (top) and relative change (bottom) of bio1 until 2071-2100 for the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).

Fig. 60. Change (top) and relative change (bottom) of bio12 until 2071-2100 for the three rcps (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).